Decline in Plant-Based Milk, Growth in Dairy Milk
In the U.S., plant-based milk sales fell by 3.7%, while conventional dairy milk grew by 4.8%. The main driver of the plant-based decline is almond milk, which accounts for 66% of plant milk volume (down 7.1%). Compared to previous years, the plant-based segment has reached a market equilibrium, where traditional dairy and alternatives coexist to attract consumer attention. This doesn’t mean plant-based products are disappearing; rather, the hype around new launches has settled.
Dairy Milk Remains the Top Choice
According to Circana, dairy milk is still the consumer favorite: 91% of households purchased dairy milk at least once annually, while plant-based milk purchases declined by 1.4 percentage points to 38%. Only about 5% of consumers use exclusively plant-based products, meaning in most cases, plant-based options complement conventional dairy (around 25% of U.S. consumers), forming part of a flexitarian lifestyle.
Key Market Trends
Consumers are seeking next-generation alternatives that closely replicate real milk in taste and functionality, while maintaining benefits like lactose-free and animal-free. Other market trends include growing demand for protein, clean-label products using natural ingredients, sugar and fat reduction, and a focus on environmental sustainability.
Global Plant Protein Market
Protein remains the “golden opportunity” in both conventional and plant-based dairy. While most plant-based alternatives still have lower protein levels than dairy, some brands now offer double-digit grams per serving. Advances in plant protein technology are improving taste and solubility. The global plant protein market is projected to reach $35 billion by 2030. Emerging protein sources, such as faba beans, enhance functionality, improve protein quality, and support sustainability as clean-label ingredients.
Next-Generation Solutions
Manufacturers are looking for solutions that are sustainable, cost-effective, scalable, and compatible with existing dairy infrastructure. NewMoo has developed a liquid casein base (instead of powder) that functions like milk in dairy production. Unlike fermentation or Plant Molecular Farming approaches, it avoids costly separation and purification steps, making it more scalable and economical without major infrastructure changes.
Next-Gen Technologies
The future of dairy alternatives is no longer just “substitution”—it’s “reimagining animal-free dairy.” Products aim to match real dairy in taste, functionality, and nutrition. While traditional plant-based milks are reaching saturation, next-generation technologies like Plant Molecular Farming are opening new possibilities to replicate milk proteins for the industry. As production scales and cost parity with conventional dairy is achieved, a new wave of dairy alternatives is expected—competing not just as “substitutes,” but as true equivalents on store shelves.
Reference:
https://www.dairyfoods.com/articles/98495-the-future-of-dairy-alternatives